Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25 – Who Will Win a Grand Slam Next?

Last updated on April 03, 2024

Michael Chang, Boris Becker, and Mats Wilander won their first Grand Slam tennis singles titles when they were 17. Bjorn Borg did it when he was 18. Carlos Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal, Pete Sampras, and Stefan Edberg had to wait till 19 to win a major tennis title.

And for Jannik Sinner, the 2024 Australian Open champion, the magic age was 22!

Carlos Alcaraz, with two titles, and Sinner, with his recent triumph, are the only two Grand Slam title-holders among the current Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25. Considering the level of talent out there, it is conceivable that a few of the young tennis players on this list will eventually win Grand Slam titles. However, for some, it will remain an elusive dream.

As we progress through the 2024 season, here’s a question: Who will be the next one to win a Grand Slam title before they hit the age of 25?

The observations and predictions below are based on available statistics as of April 03, 2024, and will vary as the tennis season progresses.

Here are some interesting stats on the Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25.

The group is younger

The players on the current list of Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25 are dramatically different from the time this post was originally written over three years ago. The average age of the players in the group is just over 22 years. That is sufficient time to pursue a Major title before turning 25.

Notable young tennis players who turned (or will turn) 25 and dropped off the 2024 list are Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, and Francisco Cerundolo. Seven others including Alex de Minaur and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina have less than a year to achieve Grand Slam glory before they turn 25.

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Two teenagers in the 2024 mix

Since Rafael Nadal’s French Open win in 2005, the only teenager to achieve a Grand Slam win is Alcaraz. With Holger Rune and Alcaraz turning 20 in 2023, the new teenagers on the list are Frenchmen Arthur Fils and Luca Van Assche. With an ATP title win to his credit and a finalist showing at the Next Gen ATP Finals, Arthur Fils is someone to watch in 2024.

The younger players have time on their side

At the rate of four majors every year, it is easy to do the math on how much time is left for each player to win a Grand Slam before their 25th birthday. Based on their current age, Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune have 16 more chances to win a major title, while Ben Shelton has 15 and Jannik Sinner has 10. Alex de Minaur turns 25 in February 2024 which takes him out of contention for Grand Slam glory before the age of 25.

With Novak Djokovic the only one remaining from the big three, the odds of someone from the current under-25 cohort of players winning a Grand Slam title is higher than what it was for their peers a few years ago.

More room at the top for newcomers

A quick look at winner stats for the open era will show you that the distribution of titles has been top-heavy during the latter half of the period.

During the period 1968 – 1994, 15 players won 3 or more Grand Slam titles. That number goes down to 8 during the period 1995 – 2023. With the big three dominating the top, there has not been much room for newcomers to squeeze in.

That run has ended.

While Carlos Alcaraz is touted as the heir apparent, Jannik Sinner’s dominating performance at the 2024 Australian Open makes him a serious challenger to Alacaraz’s position at the top. The odds of Alcaraz and Sinner winning more Grand Slam titles before turning 25 are high. Holger Rune who is currently a top-ten player and a Masters 1000 title winner, is another potential contender for a Grand Slam title, despite his disappointing performance at the first major tournament of 2024.

The youngsters have formidable opposition

Only four of the current top-10 ATP players have won a Grand Slam yet. The likes of Stefanos Tstsipas, Alexander Zverev, Andre Rublev, and Hubert Hurkacz are hungry for a Major title. Djokovic, Medvedev, Alcaraz, and Sinner have shown that when the stakes are high, they can elevate their game. The talent difference among the top 20 players is slim. Every one of them must believe they have a realistic shot at winning a Grand Slam title.

No country dominates the Tennis Top 25 Under 25 List

No one country boasts the largest contingent of young potential Grand Slam title contenders. With three players each on the list, Australia and Italy lead the pack. For now, Canada’s chances appear to have faded.

It’s only a matter of time

Though Djokovic has demonstrated his staying powers, he is not getting any younger. The future looks bright for the likes of Alcaraz, Sinner, Rune, and other younger players in the group. They are right there in the mix with players whom they have known from their junior days. It’s only a matter of time before they get their breaks. There is, of course, Daniil Medvedev, Tstsipas, Zverev, and others to deal with. But, nobody said that winning a Grand Slam was going to be easy.

Whether the players on this list win a title before they turn 25 or not, they have two things on their side. Time and timing. There is no doubt that the current players’ chances of winning a Grand Slam tennis title are way better than those who came ten years ahead of them.

The Top 25 Under 25 Men’s Tennis list and the descriptions shown below are effective April 03, 2024, and are subject to change.

So, here’s a quick look at all the players on this list.

Jannik Sinner

The 22-year-old Italian has been a top-ten professional tennis player for a while now and is the highest-ranked Italian tennis player ever. By winning his second Masters 1000 title in Miami, he surpassed Carlos Alcaraz in the ATP rankings and currently sits at world No. 2. Sinner has won thirteen singles titles, including one Grand Slam title and two Masters 1000 tournament titles. Going by his current form, Sinner’s odds to win another Grand Slam in 2024 are high.

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

Carlos Alcaraz, the Spanish professional tennis player, needs no introduction to the tennis community. Until recently, Alcaraz traded the world number one spot with Djokovic. He has won thirteen ATP Tour-level singles titles, including the 2023 Wimbledon, the 2022 US Open, and five Masters 1000 titles. Alcaraz has been vulnerable in 2024, losing to players like Alexander Zverev, Nicolas Jarry, and Grigor Dimitrov Marozsan. It’s likely that we will see the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry for some time to come.

Holger Rune

The Danish professional tennis player is among the two twenty-year-olds in the current Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25 list. Currently ranked No. 7 globally, Rune was a top-5 player and has won four ATP Tour singles titles, including a Masters 1000 title at the 2022 Paris Masters. Rune is another top contender who has a fair chance to win a Grand Slam before he turns 25.

Alex de Minaur

The 24-year-old Australian achieved a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 10 in January 2024. De Minaur has won eight ATP singles titles. He has had a good start to the 2024 season, beating Novak Djokovic at the United Cup and defending his title at Acapulco. In February 2024, Di Minaur turned 25.

Ben Shelton

The 21-year-old tennis player Ben Shelton has rapidly risen through the ranks and has a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 15, achieved in October 2023. Shelton played college tennis for the Florida Gators and has one ATP title to his credit.

Jiri Lehecka

The 22-year-old Czech tennis player Jiri Lehecka attained his highest ATP singles ranking of No. 23 in January 2024. He was a quarter-finalist at the 2023 Australian Open and has one ATP title, which he won at the Adelaide International in 2024.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spanish professional tennis player Alejandro Davidovich Fokina achieved a career-high ATP singles ranking of World No. 21 in August 2023. In his maiden appearance, the 24-year-old Davidovich Fokina reached the finals of the Monte Carlo Masters. He has yet to win an ATP title.

Sebastian Korda

Sebastian Korda, the 23-year-old American professional tennis player, achieved a career-high ATP singles ranking of World No. 23 in October 2023. Korda comes from a well-recognized sporting family and has won one ATP singles tournament, the 2021 Emilia-Romagna Open.

Lorenzo Musetti

Italian professional tennis player Lorenzo Musetti is 21 years old. Currently ranked 26th in the world, Musetti achieved a career-high singles ATP ranking of World No. 15 in June 2023. He has won two ATP Tour singles titles.

Sebastian Baez

Sebastian Baez is from Argentina and is 23 years old. Baez has won six ATP singles titles and has a career-high ATP singles ranking of World No. 19, which he achieved in March 2024.

Felix Auger-Aliassime

The 23-year-old Canadian is currently ranked 36th in the world but achieved a career-high singles ranking of No. 6 in November 2022. Felix Auger-Aliassime has won five singles titles and one doubles title on the ATP Tour. Once a serious contender for a Grand Slam title, Auger-Aliassime had a patchy 2023 and a slow start in 2024.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Tomas Martin Etcheverry, a 24-year-old Argentine professional tennis player, has a career-high ATP singles ranking of 27. He reached the Quarterfinals of the 2023 French Open and was a finalist at the 2023 Chile Open, losing to the local favorite Nicolas Jarry.

Arthur Fils

The French teenager, currently ranked 37th in the world, won his first ATP title in 2023 and is considered an exciting young prospect on the tour. While Fils has a promising future in professional tennis, predictions that he would be in the top 10 in 2024 now look a little aggressive.

Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Arnaldi, representing Italy, has been ranked as high as No. 35 in the world. His wins include a fourth-round appearance at the US Open and winning the Davis Cup in 2023. Arnaldi was nominated for the Most Improved Player of the Year and has a top-10 win against Casper Ruud to his credit.

Alexei Popyrin

Australian Alexei Popyrin is currently ranked No. 38 in the world. He had an impressive run in 2023, including reaching the Quarterfinals of the 2023 Cincinnati Open and registering five wins against top-10 players. With his career on the rise, he is expected to continue climbing the ranks and become a strong contender on the ATP tour.

Alexander Shevchenko

Alexander Shevchenko, from Russia, currently holds a career-high singles ranking of No. 45 in 2024. His consistent performance and recent wins, including two third-round appearances in Masters 1000 tournaments and a win against top-10 player Taylor Fritz, make him a player to watch in 2024.

Emil Ruusuvuori

Emil Ruusuvuori, the No. 1 Finnish singles tennis player, is 24 years old. In April 2023, he reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of world No. 37. He has been an ATP Tour finalist and has a Quarterfinal appearance at a Masters 1000 to his credit.

Jack Draper

Jack Draper is a 22-year-old British professional tennis player ranked as high as world No. 37 in singles by the ATP. Draper has won seven titles on the International Tennis Federation (ITF) Men’s World Tennis Tour and five on the ATP Challenger Tour but none at the ATP level.

Miomir Kecmanovic

Serbian professional tennis player Miomir Kecmanovic is 24 years old. He achieved a career-high ATP singles ranking of World No. 27 in January 2023. However, his ranking has slipped, and he currently sits at 50. He has one ATP title to his credit.

Fabian Marozsan

Fabian Marozsan, a tennis player from Hungary, currently holds a career-high singles ranking of No. 38. He is one of the few current players who can claim a match victory against Carlos Alcaraz in 2023. In 2023, he reached the fourth round of a Masters 1000 tournament and has had a great start to his 2024 season.

Rinky Hijikata

Australian Rinky Hijikata currently ranks No. 80 in singles. With recent successes, including reaching the fourth round of a Grand Slam, he has demonstrated potential for further growth on the ATP tour. He has two ATP Doubles wins to his credit.

Tomas Machac

Tomas Machac, a Czech tennis player, currently holds a career-high singles ranking of No. 43. He is the second-ranked Czech player behind Jiri Lehecka. He was a quarter-finalist at the Miami Masters 1000 tournament.

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazilian player Thiago Seyboth Wild has achieved a career-high singles ranking of 65. His significant victory at the 2020 ATP Tour against Casper Ruud showcases his potential for further success.

Luca Van Assche

Frenchman Luca Van Assche currently ranks 80th in the ATP singles rankings. He had a decent start to the year, reaching the third round of the 2024 Australian Open. Other notable performances include reaching the final of the ATP Challenger Tour in Lisbon, Portugal, and qualifying for the 2023 Next Generation ATP Finals.

Dominic Stricker

Swiss professional tennis player, Dominic Stricker, has attained a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 88. His recent achievements include reaching the fourth round of the US Open in 2023

So, who on this list do you think will win a Grand Slam title next? Please share your thoughts in the comments below.

Sources & Attributions

ATP Rankings

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_rankings

Carlos Alcaraz Image – Peter Edgeler on Flickr

Jannik Sinner Image – Si.Robi on Flickr

Holger Rune Image – Si.Robi on Flickr