Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25 – Who Will Win a Grand Slam Next?

Last updated on September 08, 2024

Jannik Sinner beat Taylor Fritz to win the 2024 US Open title! With the 2024 Grand Slam season wrapped up, that leaves Carlos Alcaraz, with four titles, and Sinner, with two, the only two Grand Slam title-holders among the current Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25. For the other players on this list, the wait continues.

A quick look back.

Michael Chang, Boris Becker, and Mats Wilander won their first Grand Slam tennis singles titles when they were 17. Bjorn Borg did it when he was 18. Carlos Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal, Pete Sampras, and Stefan Edberg had to wait till 19 to win a major tennis title. And for Jannik Sinner, the 2024 Australian and US Open champion, the magic age was 22!

Considering the talent pool, it is conceivable that a few of the young tennis players on this list will eventually win Grand Slam titles. Ben Shelton and Jack Draper have shown that they can hold their own against the best in the game. However, for many, a Grand Slam title will remain an elusive dream.

So, who do you think will be the next to win a Grand Slam title before they hit age 25?

The observations below are based on available statistics as of September 08, 2024, and will vary as the tennis season progresses.

Here are some interesting observations on the Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25.

The group is younger

The players on the current list of Men’s Tennis Top 25 Under 25 are dramatically different from the time this post was originally written over four years ago. The average age of the players in the group is just over 22 years. That is sufficient time to pursue a Major title before turning 25.

Notable young tennis players who turned 25 and dropped off the 2024 list are Alex de Minaur, Casper Ruud, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Alexei Popyrin, and Miomir Kecmanovic.

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Two teenagers in the mix

Since Rafael Nadal’s French Open win in 2005, the only teenager to achieve a Grand Slam win is Alcaraz. With Frenchman Arthur Fils and American Alex Michelsen turning twenty, the two teenagers in the mix are Czech player Jakub Mensik and Chinese teenager, Juncheng Shang. With notable wins and strong showings in 2024 tournaments, both are promising players worth watching.

The younger players have time on their side

At the rate of four majors every year, it is easy to do the math on how much time is left for each player to win a Grand Slam before their 25th birthday. Based on their current age, Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune have 13 more chances to win a major title, while Ben Shelton has 12 and Jannik Sinner has 7.

With Novak Djokovic the only one remaining from the big three, the odds of someone from the current under-25 cohort of players winning a Grand Slam title is higher than what it was for their peers a few years ago.

More room at the top for newcomers

A quick look at winner stats for the open era will show you that the distribution of titles has been top-heavy during the latter half of the period. During the period 1968 – 1994, 15 players won 3 or more Grand Slam titles. That number goes down to 9 during the period 1995 – 2024. With the big three dominating the top, there has not been much room for newcomers to squeeze in.

That run has ended.

While Carlos Alcaraz is touted as the heir apparent, Jannik Sinner’s dominating performance at the 2024 Australian and US Open tournaments and his rise to No.1 in the ATP rankings have shown that Alacaraz’s position at the top is by no means guaranteed. Going by their current performances, it is conceivable that Alcaraz and Sinner may emerge as the next “big two” of tennis. Holger Rune, a former top-ten player and a Masters 1000 title winner, and American Ben Shelton are other potential contenders for a Grand Slam title in the coming years.

The youngsters have formidable opposition

Only four of the current top-10 ATP players, irrespective of age, have won a Grand Slam yet. The likes of Stefanos Tstsipas, Alexander Zverev, Andre Rublev, and Hubert Hurkacz are hungry for a Major title. Djokovic, Medvedev, Alcaraz, and Sinner have shown that when the stakes are high, they can elevate their game. The talent difference among the top 20 players is slim. Every one of them must believe they have a realistic shot at winning a Grand Slam title.

Two countries dominate the Tennis Top 25 Under 25 List

Italy with five players has the largest contingent of young potential Grand Slam title contenders and dominates the tennis top 25 under 25 list. The USA with four players is in second position. The Czech Republic, France, and Argentina are tied in third place with three players each on this list.

Can the youngsters stay uninjured?

Unlike the legendary “Big Three” of tennis, who enjoyed remarkable longevity in their careers, a worrying trend of injuries is plaguing the rising generation of stars like Alcaraz, Sinner, and Auger-Aliassime. The demands of a five-setter are unlike other tournaments. Physical fitness and stamina are as important as skill. Frances Tiafoe and Jack Draper running out of gas in their semi-final matches at the 2024 US Open show that even talented players can come up short. The pressure to perform and protect their ranking points along with the packed tournament schedules might be pushing these athletes to play through minor niggles, leading to more serious injuries. Injuries can derail promising careers. Think of Dominic Thiem.

The Top 25 Under 25 Men’s Tennis list and the descriptions shown below are effective September 08, 2024, and are subject to change.

So, here’s a quick look at all the players on this list.

1. Jannik Sinner

The 23-year-old Italian has been a top-ten professional tennis player for a while now and is the highest-ranked Italian tennis player ever. Sinner has surpassed Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz in the ATP rankings and, as of June 2024, sits at world No. 1. He has won sixteen singles titles, including two Grand Slam titles and three Masters 1000 tournament titles. While recent media reports about his positive drug tests have cast a shadow over his image, Sinner continues to be a top contender for more Grand Slam titles before he turns 25.

2. Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

Carlos Alcaraz, the Spanish professional tennis player, needs no introduction to the tennis community. Until recently, Alcaraz traded the world-number-one spot with Djokovic. He has won fifteen ATP Tour-level singles titles, including the 2024 French Open, 2024 & 2023 Wimbledon, the 2022 US Open, and five Masters 1000 titles. Despite losing to players like Gael Monfils, Alexander Zverev, Nicolas Jarry, and Grigor Dimitrov earlier in the year, Alcaraz won his fourth major title by beating Djokovic at Wimbledon 2024. We will likely see the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry continue for some time.

3. Ben Shelton

The 21-year-old American tennis player Ben Shelton has rapidly risen through the ranks, achieving a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 13 in August 2024. Shelton played college tennis for the Florida Gators and has two ATP titles to his credit.

4. Holger Rune

Currently ranked No. 15 globally, Rune was a top-5 player and has won four ATP Tour singles titles, including a Masters 1000 title at the 2022 Paris Masters. Even though he has dropped out of ATP top-10, Rune remains a contender with a fair chance to win a Grand Slam before his 25th birthday.

5. Sebastian Korda

Sebastian Korda, the 24-year-old American professional tennis player, achieved a career-high ATP singles ranking of World No. 15 in August 2024. Korda comes from a well-recognized sporting family and has won one ATP singles tournament, the 2021 Emilia-Romagna Open.

6. Lorenzo Musetti

Italian professional tennis player Lorenzo Musetti is 21 years old. Currently ranked 18th in the world, Musetti achieved a career-high singles ATP ranking of World No. 15 in June 2023. He has won two ATP Tour singles titles. So far, Musetti has had a good 2024 with a Wimbledon semifinal showing and an Olympic bronze medal.

7. Felix Auger-Aliassime

The 24-year-old Canadian is currently ranked 19th in the world but achieved a career-high singles ranking of No. 6 in November 2022. Felix Auger-Aliassime has won five singles titles and one doubles title on the ATP Tour. Once a serious contender for a Grand Slam title, Auger-Aliassime had a patchy 2023. However, his appearance in the 2024 Madrid Masters 1000 finals and his mixed-doubles bronze medal at the Paris Olympics may indicate a turnaround.

8. Sebastian Baez

Sebastian Baez is a 23-year-old Argentinian tennis professional. Baez has won six ATP singles titles and achieved a career-high ATP singles ranking of World No. 18 in June 2024. His recent successes have made him the No. 1 player in Latin America.

9. Arthur Fils

The 20-year-old French player, currently ranked 23rd in the world, won his first ATP title in 2023 and followed it up with an ATP 500 win at the 2024 Hamburg Open. He is considered an exciting young prospect on the tour. While Fils has a promising future in professional tennis, predictions of a top-10 ranking in 2024 is yet to materialize.

10. Jack Draper

Jack Draper is a 22-year-old British professional tennis player who has climbed the ranks and reached a career-high ranking of world No. 25 in August 2024. Draper won a recent title at the ATP level and also has seven titles on the International Tennis Federation (ITF) Men’s World Tennis Tour and five on the ATP Challenger Tour.

11. Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Arnaldi, representing Italy, has been ranked as high as No. 30 in the world. His wins include a fourth-round appearance at the US Open and winning the Davis Cup in 2023. So far, Arnaldi has had a good 2024 with a fourth-round appearance at the French Open and a semifinal showing at the National Bank Open.

12. Flavio Cobolli

The young Italian tennis player, Flavio Cobolli, is rapidly establishing himself as a force to be reckoned with. His recent surge through the ATP rankings, propelled by thrilling victories over higher-ranked opponents like Tommy Paul and Nicolas Jarry, indicates his immense potential. Cobolli’s powerful playstyle and unwavering determination make him a player to watch in the coming years.

13. Mariano Navone

Argentinian tennis has a new star in Mariano Navone. Following his five wins in the Challenger series in 2023, Navone has seen great success in 2024. His recent string of victories, over players such as Francisco Cerundolo and Cameron Norrie, has catapulted him into the spotlight. He achieved a career-high ranking of 29 in June 2024. He is a player to watch in the coming seasons.

14. Luciano Darderi

Italian tennis player Luciano Darderi has made a remarkable surge in the ATP rankings, rising to No. 32 in August 2024. His recent successes, including a top-30 win and an ATP title victory, have cemented his position as a rising talent with a bright future.

15. Jiri Lehecka

The 22-year-old Czech tennis player Jiri Lehecka attained his highest ATP singles ranking of No. 23 in January 2024. He was a quarter-finalist at the 2023 Australian Open and has one ATP title, which he won at the Adelaide International in 2024. Lehecka has recent wins against Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Daniil Medvedev to his credit.

16. Tomas Machac

Tomas Machac, a Czech tennis player, currently holds a career-high singles ranking of No. 33. He is the second-ranked Czech player behind Jiri Lehecka. Machac beat Novak Djokovic in the semifinals of the 2024 Geneva Open before losing to Casper Ruud in the final match.

17. Alex Michelsen

Alex Michelsen, the young American tennis player, who has been making waves in the ATP tour is also new to this list. At just 19 years old, he has achieved a career-high ranking of 52 and is known for his aggressive style of play and powerful groundstrokes. Michelsen is considered a rising star in American tennis.

18. Brandon Nakashima

Brandon Nakashima is back on the list with wins against players such as Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz, and Arthur Fritz in 2024. The young American is a rising star in American tennis and is known for his consistent baseline game. He made headlines by winning his first ATP title at the 2022 San Diego Open and securing the Next Gen ATP Finals championship the same year. He has a career-high ATP singles ranking of 43.

19. Fabian Marozsan

Fabian Marozsan, a tennis player from Hungary, currently holds a career-high singles ranking of No. 36. He is one of the few current players who can claim a match victory against Carlos Alcaraz in 2023. In 2024, he has beaten two top-10 players: Holger Rune and Alex de Minaur.

20. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is a rising French tennis player known for his powerful serve and aggressive baseline game. At just 21 years old, he is new to this list and has already achieved a career-high ATP singles ranking of 44 and has claimed several Challenger titles and a recent ATP title.

21. Alexander Shevchenko

Alexander Shevchenko, from Russia, holds a career-high singles ranking of No. 45. His consistent performance and recent wins, including two third-round appearances in Masters 1000 tournaments and a win against top-10 player Taylor Fritz, make him a player to watch in 2024.

22. Hugo Gaston

Hugo Gaston, the French tennis player, is currently ranked 60th in the world and reached his second career ATP semifinal at the Generali Open Kitzbühel, notably defeating the top seed and defending champion Sebastián Báez in a thrilling three-set match. Additionally, Gaston secured his first Challenger title of the season in Lyon, reconfirming his position as a rising star in the tennis world.

23. Facundo Diaz Acosta

Another Argentinian tennis player to make this list is Facundo Diaz Acosta. He has been steadily climbing the rankings, and his recent successes, including an ATP title win, propelled him to a career-high ATP rank of 47. With his powerful groundstrokes and fighting spirit, he’s quickly becoming a force on the ATP Tour.

24. Jakub Menšík

Jakub Menšík, an 18-year-old Czech tennis player, has had a breakthrough year in 2024. He achieved a career-high ranking of world No. 64 in August. Notably, Menšík reached the semifinals of the ATP 250 event in Pune and the quarterfinals in Marseille, showcasing his potential on the professional tour.

25. Juncheng Shang

Juncheng Shang, made history as the first Chinese teenager to break into the Top 100. He reached the third round of the 2024 Australian Open, marking another milestone for Chinese men’s tennis. His recent performances include a third-round appearance at the 2024 US Open where he was beaten by Casper Ruud.

So, who on this list do you think will win a Grand Slam title next? Please share your thoughts in the comments below.

Sources & Attributions

ATP Rankings

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_rankings

Carlos Alcaraz Image – Peter Edgeler on Flickr

Jannik Sinner Image – Si.Robi on Flickr

Ben Shelton Image – Si.Robi on Flickr